While working on a paper in the mid-nineties, I had made the following notes on the indicators of the changing economy:

(i) The measure of productivity growth, the GDP, has shown signs of a long-term decline. The GDP per employee grew at a healthy rate between 1950 and 1973 but dropped significantly between 1973 and 1992.

(ii) There is an increasingly evident trend of the globalization of the economy. The ratio of exports and imports to GDP grew from 0.094 in 1960 to 0.214 in 1991. Other indicators of this trend are the changing regulations, the trade deficits, the increasing number of patents of foreign origin, and the increasing number of both foreigners employed by U.S. businesses and U.S. citizens employed by foreign corporations.

(iii) The declining value of the U.S. dollar reflects the drive to reduce labor costs and become more competitive in the international labor markets. The real value of the U.S. dollar compared to the currency of its trading partners rose to 159 in 1985 (using 1979 as a base of 100) and then dropped back to 100 by 1992.

(iv) The pace of technological change is acquiring a great rapidity in recent years. The growing influx of computers in every aspect of life is but one indicator of this transformation. It is estimated that over 40% of U.S. workers now use a computer on the job.

(v) The technological change has correspondingly generated the demand for greater skills among the working population. It has also led to a move towards jobs that require a higher degree of education leading to a growing cadre of administrators, technicians, and other professionals. In 1970, only 25.9% of the labor force aged 25-64 years had more than 12 years of schooling. By 1992, this figure had risen to 52%.

(vi) There is a massive shift in the structure of employment from goods production to service production. Around 77% of the non-agricultural workers were employed by the service sector in 1990 (up from 59% in 1950). Manufacturing accounted for 17% of the working population in 1993 (down from 34% in 1950).

(vii) Government cutbacks in programs, deregulation of rates and prices, and lowering of barriers to entry have all contributed to turbulent product and financial markets.

(viii) There has been a growing influx of Americans in the working population in the last few decades (although recent reports indicate that this is now leveling off and even dropping). 1993 saw 66.2% of the population in the civilian workforce compared to 59.2% in 1950. This is largely accounted for by the recent influx of women in the labor force. In addition, the racial composition of the workforce is changing rapidly as well. "Non-Whites" made up 15.2% of the labor force in 1994 compared to 10% in 1954.

(ix) The average unemployment rate for the civilian population grew from 4.5% in the 1950s to 7.3% in the 1980s.

(x) The compensation for workers has either stagnated or fallen for most workers in the last two decades. One example of this is the decline of median annual income for men with less than a high school education from $26,462 in 1972 to $20,306 in 1990 (in 1991 dollar terms). Simultaneously, there has been an increase in the number of low-wage employees (in 1992, 18% of the full-time workers earned less than $13,091) and an increase in the number of working hours (Americans work an average of 200 more hours than their European counterparts).

(xi) The low paid ‘contingent’ workforce (temporary and part-time workers) is becoming an increasing part of the labor mix. The number of workers employed by temporary help services has tripled between 1979 and 1992.

(xii) The institution of unionism and collective bargaining is on the decline as are the incidences of strikes and lockouts. At this time, a little more than 11% of the private sector is unionized compared to the 35% in the 1950s. 0.26% of working time was lost due to strikes in 1950. In 1990, this had dropped steeply to 0.02%.

Based upon these facts, I had offered the following observation:

The issues highlighted by this picture have raised sharp questions and tempers in the contexts of intensifying international competition, reducing rates of growth, increasing national debts, stagnating markets, and eroding wages. The advent of the "new economy" is hailed as the savior of modern capitalism. The claims that the times are changing often have a prophetic, and at times, an ominous ring to them. The economy is seen as facing a new industrial divide, contending with a new competition, and making the transformation into a new social economy. Polemics of large dimensions such as the debates on Fordism--post-Fordism, industrialism--post-industrialism, modernism--post-modernism, and industrialization-deindustrialization have led to the assertion that a deep-rooted structural and qualitative transformation in the nature of work and in the organization of firms is strongly under way.

Here is what I’d like you to do

If you were looking at the data today, what conclusions would you come to? Does my five year old assertion still make sense? Or can we make other reasonable inferences? I want you to make your own argument based upon current data (yes, this means that you will have to dig some up).

Since this is a short paper (4-6 pages), you will have to sharpen your focus in order to make a reasonable argument.  Here are the kinds of questions you may choose to ask:

1) GDP and Productivity:  How have these numbers changed over the years?  Are the current indicators promising?  Do they signal a significant change from the past?

2) Labor Market, Wages, Unemployment: How have these changed over the years?  How has minimum wage changed?  What has been the trend of real wages?

3) Diversity: Have the numbers of women entering the workforce increased?  Racial Minorities?  Immigrants?  Is the composition of the American workforce changing?

4) Globalization: Is the American industry becoming more global?  Are corporations moving their facilities (especially manufacturing) outside the U.S. borders?  Does this represent a search for cheap labor?

5) Contingent work, temporary work: Is the contingent workforce really expanding? Is contracting and subcontracting a growing phenomenon? Where is it heading?  What about temporary employment?  Part time work?  There should be plenty of information about this available at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

6) Organizational Structures: Have organizations become flatter?  Leaner?

7) There is this contention that the structure of the economy is changing with a corresponding shift in the structure of employment from goods production to service production.  Is this true?  What are its implications?

While I would like you to offer your analyses and opinions, please ensure that they are based upon facts.  And cite the full reference when you invoke any data to support your argument.